Economic Projections and What They Mean for You

If you’ve been waiting for the right time to buy or sell a home in San Antonio, 2025 may be the year you’ve been hoping for. While national headlines might suggest uncertainty, the reality in San Antonio tells a different story—one of growth, opportunity, and optimism.

Yes, mortgage rates remain elevated, and the Federal Reserve has been slow to cut rates. But the overall outlook is strong, particularly in markets like ours that benefit from economic expansion, population growth, and a thriving energy sector. With a new administration expected to bolster domestic energy production, the economic benefits of the “Drill, Baby, Drill” policy could provide additional momentum for the San Antonio housing market.

So, what does this mean for you as a buyer or seller? Let’s break it down.

Mortgage Rates: The Big Question Mark

Economists no longer predict a significant drop in mortgage rates this year. After bottoming out at 6.03% in late 2024, rates have climbed back above 7% in early 2025. Forecasts suggest that rates will gradually decline to around 6.5% by the end of 2025 and 6.3% by the end of 2026. However, they are unlikely to return to the record lows of 2020-2021 anytime soon.

Here’s the full breakdown:

  • Redfin: 6.80%
  • Capital Economics: 6.75%
  • Hunter Economics: 6.60%
  • National Association of Home Builders (NAHB): 6.53%
  • CoreLogic: 6.50%
  • Wells Fargo: 6.40%
  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): 6.40%
  • Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA): 6.40%
  • PNC Bank: 6.36%
  • Moody’s Analytics: 6.30%
  • Morgan Stanley: 6.25%
  • BrightMLS: 6.25%
  • Fannie Mae: 6.20%
  • Realtor.com: 6.20%
  • Goldman Sachs: 6.10%
  • TD Bank: 5.80%
  • National Association of Realtors (NAR): 5.80%

 

Key Takeaways:

  1. Average forecast: 6.33%, with rates ranging from 5.80% to 6.80%.
  2. Higher-end predictions: Redfin and Capital Economics expect rates near 6.75%.
  3. Lower-end optimism: TD Bank and NAR are projecting a more buyer-friendly 5.80%.
  4. Mid-range consensus: Big names like Wells Fargo, MBA, and FHFA align around 6.40%.

 

What This Means for Buyers:

  • Stabilized rates WILL drive more buyers back into the market.
  • While some may be waiting for rates to drop, a prolonged wait could mean higher home prices and increased competition.
  • Many lenders are offering rate buydowns and creative financing solutions, including ZERO down, helping buyers secure a more manageable mortgage payment.
  • San Antonio remains one of the most affordable major metro areas in Texas, making homeownership achievable despite higher rates.

What This Means for Sellers:

  • The lock-in effect (where homeowners hesitate to sell because they have low-interest mortgages) continues to limit housing inventory, keeping demand steady.
  • Home values are projected to rise another 3.5% in 2025, meaning your property is likely to retain or increase in value.
  • Buyers who are serious about purchasing now understand the market and are willing to negotiate.

San Antonio’s Market: A Positive Outlook for 2025

Unlike some cooling markets across the U.S., San Antonio’s real estate scene remains resilient. Several factors contribute to this strength:

  1. Job Growth and the Energy Sector

San Antonio benefits significantly from the energy industry, which is poised for expansion under new policies prioritizing domestic oil and gas production. More jobs mean more people relocating, increasing housing demand.

  1. Population Growth Continues

The influx of new residents, both from within Texas and from other states, has kept demand for housing steady. With a growing workforce and strong economic fundamentals, San Antonio remains an attractive place to buy and sell real estate.

  1. New Construction is Keeping Prices Competitive

Unlike many markets struggling with severe inventory shortages, San Antonio’s builders have continued developing new homes, helping to keep prices from skyrocketing. Many builders are offering closing cost incentives, rate buydowns, and flexible financing—creating great opportunities for buyers.

Why 2025 is a Good Time to Buy or Sell

For Buyers:

  • Waiting Could Cost You More – Home prices are expected to rise, and if rates don’t drop as much as anticipated, affordability could get worse.
  • Incentives Are Still Available – Many sellers and builders are offering concessions, from rate buydowns to covering closing costs.
  • Beat the Crowd – When rates do fall slightly, more buyers will flood the market, increasing competition.

For Sellers:

  • Inventory is Still Limited – Many homeowners are holding onto their properties due to the lock-in effect, meaning less competition for you.
  • Home Values Remain Strong – San Antonio’s median home price is still climbing, ensuring a solid return on your investment.
  • Serious Buyers Are in the Market – The people looking to buy in 2025 are ready and qualified, leading to smoother transactions.

Navigating the Market: How I Can Help

Whether you’re buying your first home, upgrading to a larger space, or selling to maximize your return, I specialize in helping clients strategize and negotiate in any market condition. Here’s how I can assist:

✅ For Buyers:

  • Connect you with lenders offering rate buydowns and competitive financing options.
  • Negotiate seller concessions to lower your upfront costs.
  • Identify new construction deals with builder incentives.
  • Find off-market and pre-listing opportunities to give you an edge.

✅ For Sellers:

  • Price your home strategically to maximize offers.
  • Market aggressively to reach the right buyers.
  • Negotiate top-dollar deals while ensuring smooth transactions.
  • Offer professional staging advice to increase appeal.

📞 Thinking of buying or selling? Call me today! Let’s talk about your options and create a winning strategy for 2025.

Final Thoughts: Opportunity Awaits in San Antonio

The media may paint a cautious picture of the housing market, but San Antonio continues to be a strong, growing, and opportunity-rich environment for real estate. Mortgage rates may not drop as fast as some had hoped, but the combination of job growth, a robust local economy, and continued population increases means that 2025 is shaping up to be a great year to make your move.

If you’re on the fence, don’t wait until the market heats up even more. Call me today, and let’s get started on your home buying or selling journey!